The fading democrat, President Bolsonaro

Geopolitical analysis: Bolsonaro, Brazil’s democratically elected president, is in a true Laberinth internationally, his cards are not yet fully played on geopolitical level, but we see he has four choices to get out of the isolation.

First, Brazil-US relations

The US relations for Brazil runs through Israel to get market acces by support from the Israeli lobby. Which is needed according to a source, because Brazil could become market leader in the US in certain sectors. At the moment, a good position towards the Palestinian-Israeli conflict would mean a huge amount of votes in the UN for Israel. The Latin-American policy of Israel is clear, where under the pink tide the continent was mostly pro-Palestine. Everything is now beeing done to get the conservative governements back on the Israeli side, with some presents as access to the US market and Israeli weapons…

Second, Brazil-China relations

…This didn’t work out as expectect, because Vice-President and General Mourão cancelled the movement of the Brazilian Embassy to Jerusalem. An important fact is the agricultural trade war between the US and China, China doesn’t want anymore American Soy, while the main producers are Brazil and Argentina after the US. This means that China might switch to the import from the South-american countries, which would mean a stabilisation of their economies. And more support for populist governements in the Cono Sur. We have to remark that the China belt and road initiative didn’t reach the Cono Sur yet.

Third, Brazil-Middle East and North-Africa relations (MENA)

We can’t forget that agricultural export to the MENA is according to old President Michel Temer, the axis of foreign trade with support from the military and the agroindustrial sector. This is a problem when switching markets to the US and Israel, this will take years to dislocate commerce from the MENA countries to the US, were it has historical ties with due to mass imigration. In one way or another it can replace demand that was supplied by Venezuela to the US.

Fourth, Brazil in the Lusophone world

The Lusophone countries are turning again to socialism, altough we are noticing some openings in the governement of João Lorenço of Angola, he redrew his ambassador in Jerusalem after attending the opening ceremony of the US Embassy in Jerusalem. Mozambique is for me unknow territory, Guinnee-Bissau the communist governement is still not in power and in Cabo Verde, which is an important hub for Brazil, tendencies go towards a return of the old communist party, but this won’t be for the first elections. This would mean a clear contestation to the Brazilian goverment which is not so important for trade as China. Although there are possibilities that they are in the same camp as China.