The former army commander Bolsonaro and current democratically elected president of Brazil, is facing some difficult times back home. He still has strong support from certain sectors in society, mostly the rich classes and religeous groups, but he’s losing popular support by back slashing on the poor, the disabled, the press, the LGBT and the left.
A few weeks ago there was a big rally on the Avenida Paulista supporting the president, but they were out numbered by the social movements who are always stronger. At the same time the popularity of Bolsonaro is at an all time low, people call him ‘o boçal’, a part of horn instrument were you blow in, but its also to call somebody stupid and snobish, who looks down at people.
A fact is that for his foreign policy to get closer to the US economically, he has no power base in Brazil. The BBB (Boi, Bala, Biblía), doesn’t support his current foreign policy. Looks like the Boi (agricultural soy beans producing sector) and the Army (Bala) doesn’t support the movement of the foreign trade to the US and Israel. In important future sector like the Agritech, Israel is an important competitor.
This became clear when Mourão (vice-president) travelled to China, to convince that China still has the support of Brazil economical elites. It is evident that behind the scences the army is cleaning the mess that Bolsonaro is making. Also internally according to a source, because they don’t support the widespread accesebillity of arms.
For me it was still not clear what the push and pull-factors are for the army the become members of the government. Maybe because they want to continue the stability of the country, would seem obvious, although certain sectors in the army support Bolsonaro, the role of brazil was always peace keeping. If Bolsonaro would be impeached, the army would get a legal seat as the president would be Mourão as vice-president according to a source. This is contested by another source claiming this isn’t against the constitution.
This means that the relations with the Middle East and North-Africa supported by the main sectors in society (the Boi and Bala) will not change.Vice-President and army general Mourão dismissed the change of location of the Brazilian Embassy to Jerusalem, ordered by President Jair Bolsonaro. The axis of foreign trade (Brazil and the Middle East and North-Africa) according to former president Michel Temer, and foreign responsible of the economical and political relations with the Mena under the jailed president Lula according to Matias Spektor, professor at he Fundação Getulio Vargas.
I guess that presidential candidate Haddad, who was secretary of education under Lula, was responble for the educational ties to the Middle East, because he did several visits to Syria from this point of view. This explains his strong candidacy against Bolsonaro in the elections because he had (Boi and Bala) strong support from the conservative economical elites in São Paulo. And in São Paulo there are the main industries in the country.
We can conclude that although Bolsonaro has vast support from religeous groups (Biblía) he will not be able to change things for Brazil’s foreign policy. The big slash back will be internally against his enemies in Brazil (the Poor, the Disabled, the Left, the LGBT and the Press). Although the second source says there there will be a caritas from the religious groups (Biblía) supporting the Bolsonazi.